BAC Members:
The results are in for Canada’s 44th Federal Election. The Liberals have secured another minority, after dissolving Parliament in August believing they could attain enough seats to form a majority.
With 98% of polls reporting, the breakdown is as follows:
The Liberals hold 158 seats – they held 155 at dissolution;
The Conservatives hold 119 seats – no change from at dissolution;
The Bloc Quebecois hold 34 seats – having held 32 at dissolution;
The NDP hold 25 seats – having held 24 at dissolution; and
The Green Party hold 2 seats – having held 2 at dissolution (as MP Jenica Atwin crossed the floor to the Liberals mid-term).
Neither Annamie Paul, Leader of the Green Party, nor Maxime Bernier, Leader of the Peoples Party of Canada won their seats, and the Peoples Party of Canada will not have any seats in this new Parliament.
Three Cabinet Ministers were not re-elected, including Maryam Monsef, Minister for the Status of Women; Bernadette Jordan, Minister for Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard, and Deb Schulte, Minister of Seniors. If the returning government chooses to again achieve gender-parity in Cabinet, this will be noteworthy, especially as Catherine McKenna, the former Minister of Infrastructure and Communities chose not to run for re-election. While Marie-Claude Bibeau, the previous Minister for Agriculture and Agri-food, was re-elected her former Parliamentary Secretary Neil Ellis was not.
The Liberals will once again have to depend on either the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois or NDP for support to maintain confidence in the House, meaning stakeholder engagement with all opposition parties will again be important over the next 18-24 months, the typical length of a minority Parliament.
What to expect
Over the coming months, we can expect to see a new Cabinet, as well as accompanying mandate letters – although the timing for letters is difficult to ascertain, as in 2019 it was approximately 8 weeks between election day and their release. A new Cabinet also means new staff in Ministerial offices, and new relationships to be forged.
Before Christmas, we can anticipate Parliament reconvening for the Throne Speech, a possible Fall Economic Statement, and to reach an agreement on how to convene Parliament (e.g. formal agreement needs to be in place to allow for proceedings to take place virtually). You can anticipate Committees being formed and functioning early in the new year. In particular, the Finance Committee is expected to hold short pre-budget consultations, followed by the Department’s own consultations, before a spring budget.
In the long-term, we may see one or more leadership races, with rumours swirling that some candidates are already preparing for a chance to replace Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau. While minority Parliament’s create challenges in advancing complicated policy files, leadership races may further distract both the government and opposition parties. Whereas the Liberals have a lot of unfinished business from their last mandate, their platform includes a significant number of new measures that they will need to address.